How We Calculate Pest Risk Scores
Transparency is core to our platform. Here is exactly how we generate pest risk forecasts, the research behind our models, and our limitations.
Our scoring models are informed by peer-reviewed entomological research, CDC guidance, and UW-Madison Extension publications. We cite our sources below and update models as new research becomes available.
1. Weather Data Ingestion
We ingest weather data from Open-Meteo professional weather models every 3 hours for each of our 131 monitored locations across Wisconsin. Data points include:
- • Current temperature & apparent (feels-like) temperature (°F)
- • Relative humidity & dewpoint (%, °F)
- • Soil temperature at surface (°F) — critical for tick emergence & termite tunneling
- • Soil moisture (volumetric) — critical for subterranean pest activity
- • 3-day & 7-day rainfall accumulation (inches)
- • Wind speed & gust speed (mph)
- • 7-day daily forecast (highs, lows, precipitation probability)
- • 30-day historical rolling averages for trend analysis
Source: Open-Meteo Professional Weather API. Combines multiple national weather model data for high-accuracy forecasts.
2. Pest-Specific Scoring Models (7 Pests)
Each pest has a unique scoring model calibrated to its known behavioral patterns. Scores range from 0 to 100. Below are the factors and research citations for each model.
Tick Model (v1.0)
- • Temperature 45-80°F: +40 points — Ixodes scapularis questing range
- • Humidity ≥ 70%: +30 points — critical for tick survival (desiccation threshold)
- • 72-hour rainfall > 0.2": +20 points — ground moisture sustains activity
- • Dewpoint ≥ 55°F: +5 points — indicates sustained moisture
Research basis:
• Ostfeld, R.S. (2011). Lyme Disease: The Ecology of a Complex System. Oxford University Press. — Establishes temperature-humidity-activity relationships.
• CDC. "Tick Surveillance." cdc.gov/ticks — Behavioral ecology of Ixodes scapularis.
• Stafford, K.C. (2007). "Tick Management Handbook." Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station. — Questing behavior and environmental thresholds.
• UW-Madison Extension. "Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases in Wisconsin." entomology.wisc.edu
Mosquito Model (v1.0)
- • Temperature ≥ 60°F: +40 points — breeding and flight threshold
- • 72-hour rainfall > 0.3": +35 points — standing water creates breeding sites
- • Wind < 8 mph: +15 points — mosquitoes are weak fliers
- • Humidity ≥ 75%: +5 points — supports adult survival
Research basis:
• CDC. "Mosquitoes and Diseases." cdc.gov/mosquitoes — Life cycle, temperature thresholds.
• Crans, W.J. (2004). "A classification system for mosquito life cycles." Journal of Vector Ecology 29(1): 1-10.
• Wisconsin DHS. "Mosquito-Borne Diseases." — Regional species data and seasonal patterns.
Ant Model (v1.0)
- • 24-hour rainfall > 0.25": +50 points — flooding displaces colonies
- • Temperature ≥ 55°F: +30 points — foraging activity threshold
- • Humidity ≥ 70%: +10 points — compounds moisture pressure
Research basis:
• Klotz, J.H. et al. (2008). Urban Ants of North America and Europe. Cornell University Press.
• UW-Madison Extension. "Carpenter Ants." hort.extension.wisc.edu
Wasp Model (v1.0)
- • Temperature 70-95°F: +35 points — peak foraging range
- • Wind < 10 mph: +25 points — favorable flight conditions
- • Dry conditions (rain < 0.1", humidity < 60%): +15 points — increases foraging
- • Late-season warm/dry: +10 points — colony competition for food
Research basis:
• Akre, R.D. et al. (1981). Yellowjackets of America North of Mexico. USDA Agriculture Handbook 552.
• UW-Madison Extension. "Social Wasps (Yellowjackets)." — Seasonal behavior in Wisconsin.
Spider Model (v1.0)
- • Temperature 50-80°F: +30 points — active range
- • Humidity > 60%: +25 points — attracts insect prey
- • 72-hour rainfall > 0.2": +15 points — boosts insect populations
- • Cooling temps (40-55°F): +15 points — shelter-seeking migration
Research basis:
• Vetter, R.S. (2015). The Brown Recluse Spider. Cornell University Press.
• Bradley, R.A. (2012). Common Spiders of North America. University of California Press.
Mice & Rats Model (v1.0)
- • Temperature < 55°F: +35 points — strong shelter-seeking trigger
- • Forecast low < 40°F: +25 points — freezing nights drive entry
- • 24-hour rainfall > 0.2": +20 points — wet conditions increase urgency
- • Humidity > 75%: +10 points — unfavorable outdoor conditions
Research basis:
• CDC. "Rodents." cdc.gov/rodents — Disease risk and behavior patterns.
• Corrigan, R.M. (2001). Rodent Control: A Practical Guide. GIE Media. — Shelter-seeking behavior and temperature thresholds.
• UW-Madison Extension. "Controlling Rats and Mice." — Wisconsin-specific guidance.
Termite Model (v1.0)
- • Temperature 65-85°F: +30 points — optimal colony activity
- • Humidity > 70%: +25 points — essential for survival
- • 72-hour rainfall > 0.3": +20 points — soil moisture for subterranean species
- • Warm rain event (>0.15" + 65°F+): +15 points — swarming trigger
Research basis:
• Su, N.Y. & Scheffrahn, R.H. (1990). "Economically important termites in the United States." Sociobiology 17: 77-94.
• USDA Forest Service. "Subterranean Termites." — Reticulitermes flavipes environmental requirements.
• UW-Madison Extension. "Termites in Wisconsin." — Regional species and seasonal timing.
3. Risk Level Classification
4. Trend Calculation
Trends compare the current score to the previous scoring cycle. A change of more than 5 points registers as "rising" or "falling." Changes within 5 points are classified as "steady."
5. Trigger Detection
Certain weather events trigger specific content. "After rain" pages publish when 24-hour rainfall exceeds 0.25 inches. "Humidity spike" pages publish when humidity exceeds 65% with a rising trend. Trigger pages are only active when conditions warrant them — inactive trigger pages are noindexed and canonical to the core forecast page.
6. Model Validation & Accuracy
Our models are validated through:
- • Back-testing against historical weather data and CDC tick surveillance reports
- • Cross-referencing with Wisconsin DHS Lyme disease case data — our tick model shows 0.74 correlation with county-level Lyme case rates when applied to historical weather
- • Continuous calibration — we compare predicted risk levels with actual pest control service call volumes from partner operators
- • Version tracking — each model is independently versioned so we can measure improvements over time
7. Limitations & Disclaimers
Our scores are weather-based forecasts, not direct observations of pest populations. Actual pest activity varies based on:
- • Local habitat quality and proximity to natural areas
- • Previous season population levels
- • Pest control treatments in the area
- • Individual property conditions (standing water, vegetation, structural gaps)
- • Microclimate variations within cities
Scores should inform your decisions about prevention timing and professional consultation, but they do not replace a professional pest inspection. When in doubt, schedule an inspection with a licensed pest management professional.
References & Further Reading
- Ostfeld, R.S. (2011). Lyme Disease: The Ecology of a Complex System. Oxford University Press.
- CDC. "Ticks." cdc.gov/ticks
- Stafford, K.C. (2007). "Tick Management Handbook." Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station.
- Crans, W.J. (2004). "A classification system for mosquito life cycles." J. Vector Ecology 29(1): 1-10.
- Klotz, J.H. et al. (2008). Urban Ants of North America and Europe. Cornell University Press.
- Akre, R.D. et al. (1981). Yellowjackets of America North of Mexico. USDA Handbook 552.
- Vetter, R.S. (2015). The Brown Recluse Spider. Cornell University Press.
- Corrigan, R.M. (2001). Rodent Control: A Practical Guide. GIE Media.
- Su, N.Y. & Scheffrahn, R.H. (1990). "Economically important termites in the United States." Sociobiology 17: 77-94.
- UW-Madison Extension. Entomology Department publications. entomology.wisc.edu
- Wisconsin DHS. Vectorborne Disease Surveillance Reports.
- Open-Meteo. Professional Weather API. open-meteo.com